Search results for " business cycle"
showing 10 items of 20 documents
Fiscal Adjustment and Business Cycle Synchronization
2013
Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles.
Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration
2003
We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the US, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series, together with annual and quarterly growth rates. Using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the US in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjoint fr…
Are business cycles asymmetric? Some European evidence
1997
Economic thought has ofien regal'ded business cycles as asymmetric. This papel' examines the existence of asymmetries over the business cycle in three European countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To analyze this issue, industrial production in these countries from 1957 to 1994 is examined, and quarterly contractions and expansions in this variable are compared. The results obtained with both parametric and nonparametric methods allow the existence of asymmetries in these countries to be questioned. El pensamiento económico ha considerado frecuentemente que los ciclos económicos son de naturaleza asimétrica. Este trabajo examina la existencia de asimetrías en los ciclos económ…
ECONOMIC COMOVEMENTS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
2005
This paper examines the existence of common movements in production, prices and interest rates in three countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To analyse this issue, the usual approach of studying cross-correlations is extended. Though these European countries are closely linked to each other, the results obtained vary substantially over time, with the economic variables and in the countries under consideration. Este trabajo examina la existencia de movimientos comunes en la producción, en los precios y en los tipos de interés en tres países: Francia, Alemania y el Reino Unido. Para analizar este tema, se extiende el enfoque habitual del estudio de las correlaciones cruzadas. A …
Inflation dynamics in a model with firm entry and (some) heterogeneity
2014
We analyse the incidence of endogenous entry and firm TFP-heterogeneity on the response of aggregate inflation to exogenous shocks. We build up an otherwise standard DSGE model in which the number of firms is endogenously determined and firms differ in their steady state level of productivity. This splits the industry structure into firms of different sizes. Calibrating the different transition rates, across firm sizes and out of the market we reproduce the main features of the distribution of firms in Spain. We then compare the inflation response to technology, interest rate and entry cost shocks, among others. We find that structures in which large (more productive) firms predominate tend…
The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks
2003
This paper examines the changing relationships between the G-7 countries through VAR models for the quarterly growth rates, estimated both over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Six trivariate models are estimated, all of which include the US and a European (E15) aggregate. In relative terms, the conditional volatility of E15 growth has declined more since 1980 than the well-documented decline for the US. The propagation of shocks has also changed, with the volatility and propagation effects separated by applying shocks of pre-1980 magnitude to VARs estimated over various periods. Rolling estimation reveals that E15 has a steadily increasing impact on the US economy over time, wh…
KEYNES’S EUROPEANISM AS SHOWN IN “THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE”
2012
European integration and enlargement, in the context of decreasing support of European country nationals, needs great men and great ideas standing with. J.M.Keynes proves in his book”The Economic Consequences of the Peace” that there is no other way for Europe than acts together. His economic reasons for which European countries “throb together” are presented here and supported with data. This article, with a historical approach, brings another important and strong view on the side of Europeanism.
Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis
2014
Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the current crisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which are particularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration depen…
MACROECONOMIC SYNCHRONIZATION BETWEEN G3 COUNTRIES
2002
This paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices, and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the U.S. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates that, in the last four decades, these comovements are clearly significant in all the variables, with the possible exception of short-term interest rates, and they are stronger for long-term interest rates; nevertheless, they are rather unstable over time. Este artículo estudia la existencia de un ciclo económico mundial mediante elexamen de movimientos comunes…
Fiscal Adjustments and Business Cycle Synchronization
2013
Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles